Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with Israel since his first term, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.